Episode 536: Manager Challenges, MVP Pitchers, and Other Exciting Emails
Date September 17, 2014 Summary Ben and Sam answer listener emails about Derek Jeter, manager challenges, the closer role, pitcher MVPs, and more. Topics * Derek Jeter comeback & diving catch * Closers and bullpen management * Pitcher postseason scoreless streaks * Manager challenges * Pitcher MVPs Intro The Baseball Project, "The Closer" Banter There is a pair of Matt Albers' game used pants for auction on Ebay. Sam says he would consider bidding if he were able to wear them but they are "Albersian" in size. The pants would eventually sell for $31. Email Questions * Dan: "Suppose that Jeter being a -2.5 win player or thereabouts decides he wants to come back after all and play shortstop for the Yankees. Let's suppose against all personality indications that he's extremely aggressive about it. He starts a media campaign where he asks fans to write in for him to have just one more year at his current slary of course. He makes public appearances in his Yankees jersey, he signs endorsement deals as the Yankees shortstop, he wants this. I figure he can probably come back, but what about next offseason when he decides he wants to play one more season, and another, and another, and another? How many sub replacement seasons at shortstop do you think Jeter's legacy has bought him from 1) the fans? How many years could he convince fans that he's actually the best player for the job even while being below replacement level? 2) his teammates? How many years would his teammates keep saying, 'Yeah, I hope Jeter comes back for another farewell tour? I hope Jeter comes back he's such an important part of our team'. 3) the front office? How many years could he pull this off? Remember, he has to play short. No DHing, just the captain at short." * Seth: to Jeter's catch where he jumps into the stands "As a Mets fan I tried to reason with my friends from the video that he caught the ball in fair territory and only then unnecessarily dove into the stands when he could have stopped or slid. I was wondering if there is any data available to prove that this play was not necessary and is one of the most overrated moments of Jeter's career." * Matt: (Referring to this Derek Zumsteg article) "It's good, it's sound, it's nothing that a modern saber-savvy fan has heard fewer than a dozen times (unless he's holed up recreating historical sabermetric research on his own) and a decade after it was written it seems to be wrong, right? This is a question we could ask about once or twice a year just to check in but I confess to not having seriously considered it in at least two years. Closers seem safer than ever, part of a quickly ossifying bullpen structure where no one gets more than three outs. So letting them all have an idea of when they'll be called upon has more value than swapping them around. I think this particular piece of the stat head revolution is sadly a permanent failure. Is this true? Is 2004 Derek Zumsteg wrong or is he just seeing a more distant future? And if it's true that closers are here to stay now in their current usage pattern, do we think it's because Mariano Rivera gave the role the face it needed to take on unassailable dignity? The broader bullpen revolution has made it more efficient than it once was. The lower run environment and rising league wide strikeout rate make closers seem more dominant and may even make some shaky closers more viable. Or has the flood of money into the game and the severe curtailing of free agency have loosened all the strictures on smart roster construction such that as long as someone as good at what you ask them to do, optimization is unnecessary? Do we care?" * Ryan: "With the news that John Rocker will be a contestant on the upcoming season of Survivor I went to his Baseball Reference page to refresh myself about his career and noticed that he pitched 20 2/3 innings in the playoffs without ever giving up an earned run. I'm aware from being a Cardinals fan and looking at many Cardinals player pages that Rosenthal has pitched 20 1/3 innings in the playoffs without giving up an earned run. I don't know if Rocker holds the record for most innings pitched in the playoffs while still having a career ERA of 0.00 or if Rosenthal has the active record, but I'm interesting in finding out and figured Sam could tell me definitively." * Eric: "We're almost a whole season into the manager challenge system. Do you think there has been a noteworthy difference between most managers in the skill of challenging?" * Paul: "Growing up I hated the idea of pitchers being named MVP because there was an award for the best pitcher but not for the best hitter. But in 1999 the Hank Aaron award came along and I thought 'if this gains traction I'll have no problem with pitcher MVPs' and now we have the platinum glove so all three major parts of the game have an award. Problem though, MLB has changed the selection process for the Hank Aaron award several times in the 15 years that the award has existed there have been six different selection processes, a remarkable inconsistency for an award named after Hank Aaron. Personally, I like the 2003 voting method the most. Fans 30%, analysts 70%, but any reasonable and consistent selection process would work for me. What do you think? Would a more prominent Hank Aaron award for each league's best hitter make pitcher MVPs more tolerable, and would it diminish the value of the MVP award?" Play Index * Sam uses the play index to research pitcher postseason scoreless streaks. * Mariano Rivera has the longest scoreless streak in postseason history with 33 1/3 scoreless innings. * There has never been a hidden perfect game by any pitcher in the postseason. Don Larsen threw a perfect game in Game 5 of the 1956 World Series, which was part of a 34 perfect inning streak. Notes * Having gone through the farewell tour, Sam doesn't think Jeter could come back next year. If he hadn't, Ben thinks there would not be public pressure by fans to bring Jeter back in 2015. Ben and Sam discuss Jeter's farewell tour in more detail in Episode 535. * Sam thinks that one reason why managers are hesitant to flex bullpen roles is because of "maintenance of their labor force" and their desire to avoid having a pitcher warm up but then not come into the game. * During the Play Index segment Sam reads comments left on a Yahoo! Answers page where a user asked a similar question. * There have been just under 1,200 challenges during the season. * Sam thinks that if a manager has a very high success rate on challenges that means they are not challenging enough, possibly letting worthwhile (though closer) opportunities go by. * Pitches slow down by about 10% from the time they leave the pitcher's hand to when they arrive at the catcher's glove. * Episode 454 follow-up: Based on Sam's idea that home runs count more when a team is trailing, a listener wrote in to say that reportedly in basketball played in North Korea baskets scored in the final 15 seconds of a half count for 8 points. Links * Effectively Wild Episode 536: Manager Challenges, MVP Pitchers, and Other Exciting Emails * Matt Albers game used pants Ebay listing * Derek Jeter diving into stands catch * How to Run a Bullpen by Derek Zumsteg * What is the longest postseason scoreless streak for innings pitched at Yahoo! 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